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Home Blogs Predictions
Predictions
Predicting the trap games in the 2009 SEC Football season
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Blogs - Predictions
Wednesday, 08 July 2009 16:55

Trap Games - SEC Football 2009It seems like every year in college football, and particularly in SEC Football, we come to a point in the year when one team upsets another and just makes us sit back and scratch our heads.

Last year, a blocked PAT took a huge bite out of Florida's National Championship hopes, when the Ole Miss Rebels rode into Gainesville and stunned the eventual National Champions.

Every year, these upsets, or "trap games" as we like to call them, often shape the course of the college football season. They turn a promising year into a disaster and can completely derail a team.

Today, we'll take a look at the biggest trap games for every team in the Southeastern Conference during the 2009 SEC Football season. We'll pick the SEC West first and then move over to the SEC East.

 

Alabama Crimson Tide: October 17th vs. South Carolina

The Alabama Crimson Tide football team has a fairly favorable schedule in terms of trap games. Alabama faces their biggest non-conference opponent in the first game, which gives them months to prepare. Likewise, the Crimson Tide get arguably their toughest SEC West game against LSU after a bye week. So, the pick here is South Carolina.

The game against the Gamecocks will come just after a colossal bout against Ole Miss on the road, in a game that will set an early leader in the SEC West race. South Carolina is a stout team defensively and could be able to neutralize an Alabama offense that isn't expected to put huge numbers on the scoreboard during the 2009 SEC Football season. South Carolina's offense is also very young but talented, and if they put all the pieces together on October 17th, it could spell upset for the Crimson Tide.

Arkansas Razorbacks: November 14th vs. Troy

The Razorbacks are one of those teams that it becomes hard to pick a real trap game for. Generally speaking, Arkansas should be a team capable of hanging with just about anyone, but not really expected to blow out anyone either. So picking a true "trap game" is a little tricky. Since every SEC game is crucial and its unlikely a program with Arkansas' current standing in the league will overlook anyone, we'll go non-conference for this pick.

The pick here is November 14th vs. Troy. The Razorbacks will be coming off their annual showdown with South Carolina and will get a week's breather in the conference race. However, Troy is anything but a game to catch your breath in, as the Trojans are capable of putting points on the board. That strength could very well be the difference against a suspect Razorback defense. If Petrino's offense comes out misfiring on the 14th, the Trojans will be waiting right outside the gate to come into Fayatteville and steal away the victory.

Auburn Tigers: October 17th vs. Kentucky

Auburn is another one of those teams that is a little tough to pick based on their results last year. The Tigers play a pretty average schedule in terms of the usual SEC Football schedule strengths. For this one, we'll pick the game against Kentucky, which is sandwiched in between a road trip to Arkansas and a road trip to LSU.

The Tigers matchups with the Razorbacks the past few years have been nailbiters, so there is little chance Auburn won't have their full attention on Arkansas. After what should be a tough game against Arkansas, the Tigers will get an underrated Kentucky Wildcats team in Jordan Hare. No matter how much the coaches try to keep the players focused, somewhere in the back of the Tigers' minds the road trip to Baton Rouge the following week will be floating around. Kentucky has the defense to stifle an Auburn offense that wasn't very productive last season.

LSU Tigers: September 26th @ Mississippi State

The Tigers are another one of the SEC Football teams that you really have to dig deep to try to come up with a trap game. After a tough matchup with Ole Miss, we very nearly went with the home game against Arkansas in the final week. However, with the last second drama in that matchup the past two years, the Tigers should be ready, especially if the SEC West is hanging in the balance.

So instead, we went with Mississippi State. The Tigers will travel to Starkville to take on a team that will have a new look offensively with head coach Dan Mullen at the helm. It's early in the season, so the Tigers won't have a ton of film on the Bulldogs when they meet. The biggest factor that makes this contest a trap game is the fact that LSU must travel to Georgia and then host defending National Champions, Florida, in back-to-back weeks following the game in Starkville. If the Tigers overlook this one, Dan Mullen could have his team feeling the love early in his tenure.

Mississippi State Bulldogs: October 17th @ MTSU

The Bulldogs have a fairly tough schedule all the way around, so this was another difficult pick. However, after looking at some of the returning rosters for some of Mississippi State's opponents next season, this game with MTSU was a shoe-in. The Blue Raiders return their top five offensive playmakers from an offense that was capable of moving the ball last season. The verdict is still out on the Mississippi State defense after a so-so year in 2008.

If the Bulldogs come in looking ahead to an enticing matchup with defending National Champions, Florida, the following week, it could spell trouble. Not only that, but new head coach Dan Mullen will certainly be foaming at the mouth to knock off former head coach Urban Meyer. If Mullen gets too into preparing for the Florida game, the Bulldogs could find themselves in trouble in one of those must-win games if they hope to make it to a bowl in 2009.

Ole Miss Rebels: October 31st @ Auburn

The Rebels have a very nice schedule set up in 2009, as many have pointed to as a reason Ole Miss will win the SEC West. If the Rebels are going to trip up anywhere, it's more likely to be because a team is playing well above what they were predicted to, not because Ole Miss overlooked them. Auburn has that capability, as defensive guru Gene Chizik returns to the Tigers.

The game also comes on the road for Ole Miss, where the Rebels have frequently had some lapses this decade. It comes after what should be an emotional contest for Houston Nutt against his former team, the Arkansas Razorbacks. If Nutt and the Rebels aren't fully prepared for what should be a physical, smashmouth game, their season could hang in the balance.

 

Florida Gators: September 26th @ Kentucky

Almost everyone has penciled in Florida's home game against Arkansas on October 17th as the trap game for the Gators. Coming after a tough road trip to LSU, that would seem to be a logical conclusion, as Arkansas figures to be a deceptively tough team in 2009. However, we're going to go against that pick for a couple of reasons. First off, it's homecoming for the Gators and it will be Tim Tebow's final season. Tebow should enter the Swamp ready to enjoy his final homecoming and give the Gator fans something to savor on the long weekend.

Kentucky, on the other hand, comes at an intersting time in the Florida schedule. Florida will play a hugely anticipated and media crazed game against Lane Kiffin and the Tennessee Volunteers the week before. In fact, Florida already has a ton of bulletin board material on Lane Kiffin in the locker room. After this mentally and emotionally draining game, the Gators will travel all the way to Lexington to take on a surprisingly tough Wildcat team. It will be early in the season, so a few key plays on offense and a good defensive performance could keep Kentucky right there with the Gators into the fourth quarter.

Georgia Bulldogs: October 10th @ Tennessee

The Bulldogs are another team where we struggled to really find a game. This one stuck out for a couple of reasons. First off, with Georgia's win over Tennessee last year, and Tennessee's collapse, the Bulldogs might take the Volunteers lightly. Secondly, Neyland Stadium promises to be a whole different beast in 2009 after Lane Kiffin's comments lit a fire in Tennessee country. Lane Kiffin hauled in a great recruiting class, as well. Some of those freshman stars could have breakout seasons.

If Tennessee's offense can match their defense, who held the Georgia Bulldogs to a 26-14 win in 2009, the Volunteers could be poised to spring the upset. Superstar safety Eric Berry is confident in the new Tennessee coaching staff, and if that translates onto the field, Tennessee could be a huge surprise in the SEC East in 2009. Georgia better come into Knoxville ready to play.

Kentucky Wildcats: October 24th vs. UL-Monroe

Before you slam us, we just want to say that this is, by far, our biggest stretch and our worst pick. Simply put, there's really just no game you can point to on the Wildcats schedule that screams trap game. So, we made the best of what we had to work with and made UL-Monroe the pick. The Warhawks lose a terrific dual threat, senior quarterback, but return their top running back and wide receiver. That means whoever steps into the QB role should have some offensive firepower.

Now, we're not picking UL-Monroe to beat Kentucky, despite their much ballyhooed win over the Alabama Crimson Tide in 2007. But, they do pose an interesting threat for the Wildcats, who get the Warhawks in between road trips to Auburn and Vanderbilt. At this point in the season, we expect Kentucky to be nearing bowl eligibility and perhaps even fighting to stay in the SEC East race. If the Wildcats are more focused on the SEC race than becoming bowl eligible, this could be a stumbling block for Rich Brooks and company.

South Carolina Gamecocks: November 7th @ Arkansas

It's hard to really call South Carolina's matchup with Arkansas a true trap game, since the two have more or less split the series over the past five years. However, the trip comes between what should be emotionally charged games against Lane Kiffin and Tennessee and head coach Steve Spurrier's alma mater, the defending National Champions, Florida.

Arkansas should have the type of offense to hang with just about anyone in 2009, and the Gamecocks have struggled with the Arkansas rushing attack in recent years. The Razorbacks should have as good a backfield as they've had since the Darren McFadden and Felix Jones duo rolled through Fayatteville. South Carolina can't get caught looking ahead to a potential upset of Florida, or the Razorbacks will make them pay.

Tennessee Volunteers: November 21st vs. Vanderbilt

The Volunteers should have plenty of exciting games after head coach Lane Kiffin's remarks made him public enemy No. 1 in the SEC (see above links). However, Kiffin hasn't mentioned a word about in-state rival Vanderbilt. The thought here is that the rivalry is much more prevalent in the minds of the Commodores than it is in the minds of the Volunteers. If that's the case, Tennessee could struggle to stay mentally focused in between road trips to Ole Miss and Kentucky.

You can bet that any of Vanderbilt's players that were overlooked by the Volunteers in recruiting will be bringing their best game to Knoxville on November 21st. If Bobby Johnson can prove to be as adept at helping his team take advantage of key turnovers as they were in 2008, they could be poised to rain on Lane Kiffin's first home finale.

Vanderbilt Commodores: September 26th @ Rice

This is another one of those real stretches in trying to pick a trap game. No one on the SEC Football slate can be considered a trap game for the Commodores, so we were forced to pick between Western Carolina, Rice, Army and Georgia Tech. Western Carolina probably doesn't have the caliber athletes to pull off the upset, Army lost their all-time leading rusher and threw for just over 500 yards in the 2008 season and Georgia Tech can't qualify by virtue of being an upper tier BCS conference team.

That left us with Rice, who admittedly lost their quarterback and one of their top wide receivers. Still, the game is on the road, opening up the possibility that Vanderbilt could slip up. The Commodores will be coming off a home game against Mississippi State and looking ahead to a tough home contest against the Ole Miss Rebels. If the Commodores don't stay focused, the Owls are capable of pulling off the upset.

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